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Nigeria’s crude petroleum and natural gas sector posted slower real growth of 2.6% in the first half of 2026, down from 10.7% in the same period of 2025, according to a report by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group. The slowdown came even as the sector’s operating profit, cash flow and access to credit indices stayed above the 100-point expansion mark, while investment remained below benchmark at 92.7.
Nigeria’s oil and gas sector expanded more slowly in the first half of 2026, even though key measures of company finances remained positive.
A report by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, or NESG, said real growth in the crude petroleum and natural gas sector slowed to 2.6% in H1 2026 from 10.7% in H1 2025.
The report showed the weaker growth came during a period when crude oil production averaged 1.63 million barrels per day in H1 2026. That was slightly below the 1.68 million barrels per day recorded in H1 2025, but above the 1.53 million barrels per day reported for 2024.
NESG’s Overall Business Conditions Index for the energy sector stood at 108.6 in H1 2026, indicating expansion because it remained above the 100-point benchmark. However, that was lower than 113.2 in 2025, though still an improvement on 93.5 in 2024.
The report also pointed to relatively favourable financial conditions for firms. The Operating Profit Index reached 119.3, the Cash Flow Index stood at 130.5, and Access to Credit came in at 120.9.
Despite those readings, investment stayed weak. NESG said the sector’s Investment Index fell to 92.7 in H1 2026 from 95.7 in H1 2025, leaving it below the 100-point benchmark used to signal expansion.
That contrast is notable in a capital-intensive industry such as oil and gas, where new spending is important for sustaining production and supporting future output.
Why it matters
The figures show a gap between stronger company financial conditions and weaker investment activity in one of Nigeria’s most important sectors. Even with profit, cash flow and credit indicators in expansion territory, the sector still recorded slower real growth and an investment reading below benchmark.
For policymakers, businesses and energy market watchers, that suggests that better operating conditions alone did not translate into stronger capital spending in H1 2026. It also underlines how modest shifts in production and investment can matter for overall sector performance.
What it means for your money
There is no direct personal-finance change announced in the report for households. However, oil and gas remains central to Nigeria’s wider economy, so sustained weakness in sector growth or investment is a key trend for businesses, government revenue watchers and investors to monitor.
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The next key thing to watch is whether investment in the sector moves back above the 100-point expansion benchmark in later readings. It will also be important to monitor whether crude production levels improve or weaken after the H1 2026 average of 1.63 million barrels per day.
Readers should also watch future NESG business condition updates for signs that strong profit, cash flow and credit conditions are either being sustained or beginning to soften.
NESG’s latest energy-sector report shows that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry grew more slowly in H1 2026, even though firms still reported positive profit, cash flow and credit conditions. The main weakness in the data was investment, which remained below the expansion benchmark.
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