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An IFAD report released at COP31 warned that the 2026/2027 El Niño could trigger agricultural drought and food-supply stress in Nigeria and other Sahel countries. It said major El Niño-related rainfall deficits of 20% to 35% across the Sahelian belt could reduce yields of rain-fed staples such as millet, sorghum and maize by 15% to 30%.
The International Fund for Agricultural Development has warned that the 2026/2027 El Niño could cut yields of key Sahel staple crops by 15% to 30%, raising fresh concerns over food supply in Nigeria and neighbouring countries.
In a report released at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, IFAD said Nigeria and other Sahel countries face the risk of agricultural drought and wider food-system stress if the weather pattern develops as projected.
The report identified a potential agricultural drought corridor stretching from Senegal through Nigeria to Ethiopia and Sudan. That places Nigeria within a broad belt that IFAD says could face suppressed rainfall during major El Niño events.
According to the report, previous major El Niño episodes led to localised rainfall deficits of 20% to 35% across the Sahelian belt. IFAD said those rainfall shortfalls could translate into yield losses of 15% to 30% for major rain-fed staple crops, including millet, sorghum and maize.
These crops are central to food production across much of the region, making the warning significant for countries already exposed to climate and supply pressures.
Beyond the Sahel, IFAD estimated that the 2026/2027 El Niño could cost the global economy up to $11 trillion over five to six years. The estimate covers agricultural losses, infrastructure damage and wider economic disruptions.
The report was presented during COP31 as governments and development institutions discussed climate risks facing vulnerable regions. For Nigeria, the warning adds to concerns about how extreme weather can affect farming in areas that depend heavily on seasonal rainfall.
Why it matters
The most immediate issue for Nigeria is the risk to rain-fed agriculture. If rainfall is suppressed across the Sahel corridor as IFAD outlined, lower output from staple crops could deepen pressure on food supply in affected areas.
The warning also matters because Nigeria is specifically included in the drought corridor identified by IFAD, rather than being mentioned only as part of a wider global trend.
What it means for your money
There is no direct personal-finance action in the report. However, it signals a risk to food supply if drought affects rain-fed staples in Nigeria and across the Sahel.
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What matters next is whether weather and seasonal rainfall patterns begin to reflect the risks highlighted in IFAD’s report. Readers should also watch for any response from Nigerian agriculture and climate authorities, as well as further updates from IFAD and other official bodies on expected El Niño impacts in the Sahel.
IFAD’s central warning is clear: if the 2026/2027 El Niño brings the kind of rainfall deficits seen in past major episodes, Nigeria could be part of a Sahel-wide squeeze on staple crop yields and food supply.
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