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Nigeria’s merchandise trade deficit with China widened by ₦1.56 trillion, or 40.43 per cent, to ₦5.41 trillion in Q2 2026. The shift came as exports to China fell 54.30 per cent to ₦506.57 billion, while imports from China rose 19.26 per cent to ₦5.92 trillion, according to Punch’s analysis of National Bureau of Statistics foreign-trade reports.
Nigeria recorded a much wider merchandise trade deficit with China in the second quarter of 2026, as exports to the Asian country dropped sharply while imports continued to rise.
Punch’s analysis of National Bureau of Statistics foreign-trade reports showed that the trade gap with China increased by ₦1.56 trillion, or 40.43 per cent, from ₦3.85 trillion in Q2 2025 to ₦5.41 trillion in Q2 2026.
The widening deficit was driven by a steep fall in Nigeria’s exports to China. Exports declined by ₦601.82 billion over the period, dropping 54.30 per cent from ₦1.108 trillion in Q2 2025 to ₦506.57 billion in Q2 2026.
At the same time, Nigeria’s imports from China rose by ₦955.58 billion, or 19.26 per cent, from ₦4.96 trillion in Q2 2025 to ₦5.92 trillion in Q2 2026.
The figures came in the same quarter that China began offering zero-tariff treatment for qualifying Nigerian products. That policy took effect on May 1, 2026.
However, the Q2 trade data also include April, meaning the quarterly total cannot isolate the policy’s effect during its first two months. The figures therefore show the overall trade movement for the quarter, not a clean before-and-after measure of the tariff change alone.
Why it matters
The data point to a sharper imbalance in Nigeria’s goods trade with one of its biggest trading partners. Even with new zero-tariff access for qualifying Nigerian exports, the reported Q2 numbers show imports from China rising while exports to that market fell significantly over the same period.
That contrast matters because it affects how quickly any new trade concession translates into measurable export gains. It also shows that one policy change may not immediately alter trade flows in quarterly data.
What it means for your money
There is no direct personal-finance change confirmed in the data. For businesses, especially importers, exporters and manufacturers linked to China trade, the figures highlight a wider gap between what Nigeria buys from China and what it sells there in Q2 2026.
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Attention will likely turn to later trade data to see whether China’s zero-tariff treatment leads to stronger Nigerian exports after a fuller period under the policy. The key point to monitor is whether exports to China recover in subsequent quarters and whether the trade deficit begins to narrow.
Readers should also watch whether official trade reports provide clearer evidence on the performance of qualifying Nigerian products under the new tariff arrangement.
Nigeria’s Q2 2026 trade figures show a wider goods deficit with China, caused by falling exports and rising imports. While zero-tariff access for qualifying Nigerian products began during the quarter, the available data do not yet show a reversal in the trade imbalance.
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